The market gives you a probability. We ask whether it’s right.
ProbGap builds independent probability forecasts and highlights where our view materially differs from prediction-market pricing.
Where we disagree with the market
The interesting cases aren’t where everyone agrees. They’re where our independent forecast materially diverges from market pricing.
Market
65%
ProbGap
38%
Gap
-27 pp
Canada - EU associate membership. The market is pricing a much more optimistic outcome than our independent forecast.
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The gap is public.
The reasoning is for members.
See our probability and how it compares with the market for free. Members get the full reasoning behind the forecast — what we think the market may be missing, which evidence matters most, and what could change our view.
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How ProbGap works
We don’t predict everything. We focus on markets where our independent forecast meaningfully differs from consensus.
01 - Scan
We monitor prediction markets across AI, tech and macro.
02 - Forecast
We build an independent probability using base rates, current evidence and external consensus.
03 - Compare
We highlight the largest gaps between our forecast and market consensus.
Why ProbGap
Independent forecasts
Our probabilities are built independently before comparison with the market.
Public track record
Every published forecast is timestamped and scored after resolution.
No cherry-picking
Forecast revisions remain visible and historical probabilities are preserved.
Focused coverage
We concentrate on AI, tech and macro markets where meaningful evidence exists.
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